# forecasting assignment

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Name Professor Course Date The text book we are using is.. wink, Melnyk, Cooper & Hartley, (2017), Managing Operations Across the Supply Chain, McGraw Hill, 3rd Edition. Question 8 page 435 The owner of an online video rental service has recorded the following rentals each week: Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Rentals 1202 1503 1444 1254 1609 1499 1689 1555 Use a three-week moving average to forecast sales for each of the weeks 4 through 9. For the prediction of rentals of week 9 using a three week moving average, then: 1499+1689+15553=1581 rentalsFor week 8: 1609+1499+16893=1599 rentalsFor week 7: 1254+1609+14993=1454 rentalsFor week 6: 1444+1254+16093=1435 rentalsFor week 5: 1503+1444+12543=1400 rentalsFor week 4: 1202+1503+14443=1383 rentalsUse a four-week moving average to forecast sales for each of the weeks 5 through 9. Using a four moving average, the rentals for week 9 through 5 are obtained as: 1609+1499+1689+15554=1588 rentals1689+1499+1609+12544=15121444+1254+1609+14994=14511503+1444+1254+16094=14521202+1503+1444+12544=1350Compare the forecasts created by these two methods using mean absolute deviation. Which forecasting method would you recommend? 3-week moving average Week Actual Rentals Predicted Value Difference 1 1202     2 1503     3 1444     4 1254 1383 129 5 1609 1400 209 6 1499 1435 64 7 1689 1454 235 8 1555 1599 44     Sum of Difference 681     Average Difference 136.2 4-week moving average Week Actual Rentals Predicted Value Difference 1 1202     2 1503     3 1444     4 1254     5 1609 1350.75 258 6 1499 1452.5 47 7 1689 1451.5 238 8 1555 1512.75 42     Sum of Difference 585     Average

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